1 January 2006

Procyclicality in the financial system: Do we need a new macrofinancial stabilization framework?

in Kiel Economic Policy Papers no 2 Kiel Institute for World Economics, September 2005 and BIS Working Papers, no 193, January 2006

The successful pursuit of the objective of low inflation by central banks in recent decades has also delivered low variability of both inflation and output. At the same time, numerous financial and other “imbalances” (defined here as significant and sustained deviations from historical norms) have emerged. Should these imbalances revert to the mean, there could be significant effects on output growth. Although such an adverse outcome remains only a possibility, the question asked in this paper is whether we might still benefit from a new macrofinancial stabilisation framework in which monetary and regulatory policies gave more attention to avoiding the emergence of imbalances in the first place.

Jan2006_Procyclicality in the Financial System;work193.pdf