Reevaluating Monetary policy in an Age of Uncertainty: Embracing Complexity

On March 26, 2025, William White gave the final lecture in the Macroeconomic Policy series sponsored by the Global Risk Institute in Toronto. He began by noting some of the undesirable outcomes associated with flexible inflation targetting in the advanced market economies; rising price levels, very high levels of private and public debt, rising inequality and slower potential growth. These outcomes could end in a serious crisis, an unintended consequence arising from the fact that  the inflation targetting framework rests on false assumptions about how the economy actually works. It is not a simple, static, linear, deterministic system seeking “equilibrium” but a complex, adaptive system (CAS) with potentially dangerous “tipping points” and no equilibrium. Embracing this fact immediatly leads to practical lessons about how to prevent crises,  how to manage the buildup of systemic stress and how to manage crises when they do arise. White then looked at many of the changes already proposed for how the current framework might be improved. He  concluded that the proposals recently made by Claudio Borio (OMFIF) and the BIS (Annual Report) best reflected what an explicit CAS framework would recommend

 

https://globalriskinstitute.org/event/rethinking-monetary-policy-adapting-central-bank-approaches-in-2025-and-beyond/#embedded-video