Bad Financial Moon Rising

In this article, published by Project Syndicate, Bill White lays out his reasons for believing that a forthcoming financial crash and subsequent global recession might be even more serious than the one that began in 2008. One important factor is that governments have a much reduced capacity to repond as well as a much reduced willingness to do so in a cooperative way. If rising nationalist tendencies impede collective policy action, which then leads to a worsening economic situation and still more nationalism,  we would be on “an old, familiar, and extremely dangerous path”.

Bad Financial Moon Rising


Posted by williamw in Articles

A Global Dollar Shortage?

The editor of The International Economy magazine asked a number of well known economists “What to make of the global dollar shortage?” The answers were published in the Summer 2018 edition. Bill White’s contribution emphasized systemic exposures linked to the major increase in dollar denominated liabilities issued (largely by corporations) by entities whose revenues were not generated in dollars. Should we pass through another phase of “Risk Off” investing, liquidity support in dollars from the Federal Reserve would likely be required. Whereas swap lines exist for European and some other central banks, no such lines currently exist for some emerging market economies likely to be on the firing line in the future.

International EconomySummer2018


Posted by williamw in Articles, Press

Video Interview with Grant Williams on “Real Vision”

Bill gave an interview to Real Vision, a subscription channel on the internet, which was put out on 18 August, 2018. The interview extends over 90 minutes and covers many of the economic and financial events shaping Bill’s long career. He concludes that the lessons that ought to have been learned from past crises have not been learned. As a result, the global economy not only faces severe risks looking forwards, but global authorities are also increasingly constrained in their capacity to respond. While seeing the full interview requires a subscription, some flavour is given by the following links.

Posted by williamw in Interviews

Interview with Mark Schorer in Börsen-Zeitung

In this interview, published in Börsen-Zeitung on 8 June 2018, Bill answers questions related to the Swiss referendum (the “Vollgeld” initiative) on whether a “narrow money”regime should be introduced in Switzerland. He agrees that the current fiat money system in place almost everywhere has serious deficiencies. Thinking carefully about how it might be improved or even replaced is a worthwhile endeavour. That said, replacing the current Swiss system with one so radically different, and at such short notice, coud result in unintended and undesired consequences. The interview in German, and the English translation, can be found below.



Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press

Are We at Risk of a Global Straightjacket?

This article was published in the spring 2017 edition of “The International Economy”.

It is argued that global non-financial debt levels (public plus private)are now so high they constitute a kind of “debt trap” for monetary policy. Interest rates must be raised to prevent debt levels from rising further, but cannot be raised without triggering another crisis that we all wish to avoid. It is imperative to take measures to prevent a disorderly restructuring or repudiation of debts that can not be serviced at higher interest rates.

Posted by williamw in Articles