Press

Why policy makers should embrace complexity economics as their analytical framework

Bill White gave a radio interview on 17 May to Chris Sheridan for the California-based Financial Sense Newshour.  The Financial Sense Newshour is a free financial/market broadcast that features analysis of current market events and interviews with financial experts. While directed in large part to the implications for public policy of embracing the concept of the economy as a complex adaptive system,  the discussion ranged more broadly over issues pertinent to both monetary policy and financial regulation. One important issue raised was an evaluation of Modern Monetary Theory, its near term allure but its longer-term dangers.

https://static.financialsense.com/audio/2019-05/fsn2019-05-22-white-0533049305e50.mp3

 

Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press

How the long debt cycle might end

Martin Wolf, in his article of 14 May, 2019 in the Financial Times, made reference to some of my earlier publications that warned of a renewed financial crisis. He notes my concerns about a constantly growing ratio of non-financial sector debt to global GDP and the incoherence between the near term implications of monetary policy (expansionary) and financial regulation (contractionary) for aggregate demand. These problems, along with many other “imbalances” in the global economy arising from policy actions, might trigger a renewed crisis. Should exogenous forces, like a trade war, provide an alternative trigger for a new downturn, these “imbalances” will surely worsen it s magnitude and duration.

http://www.ft.com/content/f09cda30-7598-11e9-bbad-7c18c0ea0201

Posted by williamw in Press, References

New Thinking in Economics

This letter to the editor was published in the April 27th edition of  “The Economist”. It refers briefly to policy insights suggested by embracing the concept of the economy as a complex, adaptive system. A much fuller presentation of those insights, for the conduct of monetary policy in particular, can be found under the category “Presentations” on this website. Posted on 22 April, 2018, the article is entitled “Recognizing the Economy as a Complex, Adaptive System: Implications for Central Banks”.

https://www.economist.com/letters/2019/04/27/letters-to-the-editor

Posted by williamw in Articles, Press

Global debt risk: Are we prepared for the next crisis?

This article was published on 25 April in a new, on-line  Swiss business journal called “The Market”. It suggests that our collective efforts at “crisis prevention” have not been successful and that future economic and financial crises can by no means  ruled out. Moreover, the effectiveness of the instruments we have available to attenuate such problems (“crisis management”) have seriously diminished over time. In such circumstances, many debts will not be serviced or repaid. To avoid a disorderly outcome, like the Debt/Deflation described by Irving Fisher in 1936, many debts will have to be restructured or forgiven. We should be focusing now on improving our legal and administrative procedures to ensure that these debt problems can be resolved  (“crisis resolution”) in as orderly a way as possible.

https://themarket.ch/meinung/william-r-white-are-we-prepared-for-the-next-financial-crisis-ld.213

 

Posted by williamw in Articles, Press

Central banks are biased towards loose policy

This interview with Bill White was published in the Swiss paper, Finanz und Wirtschaft on 6 April, 2019. In it, Bill reflects on how the “debt trap” will impede monetary normalization, and how central banks got into this situation. He also discusses how other policies might be used to raise the possibility of getting out of this trap.

Central banks are biased towards loose policy https://www.fuw.ch/article/central-banks-are-biased-towards-loose-policy/

Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press

Ways Out of the Global Debt Trap

This article was published in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on 18 December 2018. It was based on a presentation made on 16 November to the Progress Foundation in Zurich.

 

Gastbeitrag Bill White FAZ Dez 2018
Posted by williamw in Articles

Reforming the Fed

Along with others, Mr White was invited to provide an answer to the question, posed by the magazine The International Economy, of how the Fed’s mandate might be changed. He suggested that efforts to raise inflationary expectations by changing the mandate were doomed to failure. Rather, the Fed should pay less attention to decimal point deviations from inflation targets and focus more intently on avoiding credit driven “busts” in financial markets. The article was published in the Spring 2019 edition.

Reforming the Fed

InternationlEconomyFedReformPublication
Posted by williamw in Articles, Press

Bad Financial Moon Rising

In this article, published by Project Syndicate, Bill White lays out his reasons for believing that a forthcoming financial crash and subsequent global recession might be even more serious than the one that began in 2008. One important factor is that governments have a much reduced capacity to repond as well as a much reduced willingness to do so in a cooperative way. If rising nationalist tendencies impede collective policy action, which then leads to a worsening economic situation and still more nationalism,  we would be on “an old, familiar, and extremely dangerous path”.

Bad Financial Moon Rising

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/global-economy-weak-fundamentals-by-william-white-2018-10

 

Posted by williamw in Articles

A Global Dollar Shortage?

The editor of The International Economy magazine asked a number of well known economists “What to make of the global dollar shortage?” The answers were published in the Summer 2018 edition. Bill White’s contribution emphasized systemic exposures linked to the major increase in dollar denominated liabilities issued (largely by corporations) by entities whose revenues were not generated in dollars. Should we pass through another phase of “Risk Off” investing, liquidity support in dollars from the Federal Reserve would likely be required. Whereas swap lines exist for European and some other central banks, no such lines currently exist for some emerging market economies likely to be on the firing line in the future.

International EconomySummer2018

 

Posted by williamw in Articles, Press