Comments By William White on the papers by Mishkin,Fahr and all- Conference on "Monetary policy Strategy:Experience during the crisis and lessons learned"

Confrerence organised in Frankfurt on 18 November 2010 by the European Central Bank

I wish to begin with a crucial introductory point. According to all of the models commonly in use at central banks and international financial institutions, this could not happen. Modern macro models such as the New Classical, New Keynesian, and DSGE models rule out extended economic disequilibria by assumption. More traditional structural models rule out such outcomes inadvertently by paying too little (if any) attention to the factors now commonly believed to have both precipitated the crisis and to have contributed to its longevity. Here I am referring to the whole gamut of credit, leverage, stocks (especially of debt), and the gradual build-up (now unwinding) of “imbalances” in the real economy.

18 November, 2010
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