The future of policy modelling

William White contributed to the opening panel of the 25th Central Bank Macroeconomic Modelling Workshop, which took place from 9-11 November. In his remarks, White said he would evaluate recent developments in modelling from a particular perspective: namely, that economies were complex, adaptive systems with associated properties. From this perspective, he concluded that many recent developments (recognition of uncertainty and non-linearities, more reliance on scenarios than forecasts etc.) would improve the conduct of monetary policy. In contrast, White identified some neglected areas (supply side developments, the possibility of financial instability etc.) that needed to be more closely integrated into models and the monetary policy framework. His written notes and the recording are available below