William White presented a webinar to the Global Risk Institute in Toronto on 24 January, 2023. He contended that the global economy will face a number of negative supply shocks in the years ahead, while at the same time facing the need for a significant increase in investment. This will create pressure for higher inflation and for higher real interest rates. However, as a legacy of past debt accumulation, higher rates could create financial instability and also fears about the sustainability of government finance in many countries. To avoid this dilemma, the best solution would comprise orderly debt restructurings, fiscal restraint and measures to temper consumption. Given the political difficulties of doing this, the more likely solution might be an attempt to reimpose the “financial repression” used successfully to reduce debt overhang after World War ll.
