William White had an article published in the OMFIF Bulletin on 18 March. He noted that the Gulf war with Iran could be a significant inflationary shock for the global economy. Moreover, it comes at a particularly unfortunate time. Inflation is already above target in many jurisdictions and inflationary expectations might easily be shocked upwards. In addition, we are just beginning a new “Era of Scarcity” implying the need to deal with a whole host of secular inflationary forces. These include worsening demographics, deglobalization, climate change and the need for increased spending on defense. Central banks obviously would want to lean against these pressures but two other concerns might limit their capacity to do so. After decades of easy fiscal and monetary policy, record high levels of private sector and public sector debt threaten “financial dominance” and “fiscal dominance” respectively. The outcome might be significantly higher levels of inflation than is currently expected.
https://www.omfif.org/2026/03/central-banks-face-higher-inflation/
