On 25 February 2021, Marc Friedrich posted an interview with William White. Friedrich is a popular author and one of the most widely followed podcasters in Germany dealing with economic and financial issues. In a wide ranging discussion, White answered questions on the long standing roots of our current economic and financial difficulties and why policymakers chose not to accept earlier criticism that they had embarked upon a dangerous path. The discussion extended to cryptocurrencies and whether more radical monetary and regulatory reform (including reform of the International Monetary System) might be required to achieve sustainable increases in human well being over time?
Interviews
Former Central Banker Explains Alarming Debt Trap Facing America
William White was recently interviewed by Danielle Dimartino Booth for Valuetainment Economics. Her regular program,”Down the Middle,” is internet based and attempts to explain important and current issues in terms that non-specialist viewers can understand. After responding to some questions about his background and reasons for going into central banking, White addressed a wide range of topical issues. These include the effectiveness and side effects of ultra-easy monetary policy, the “exit” problem, some changes in financial regulation, and the need for more and better means of debt restructuring at the global level.
“The Great Demographic Reversal” A Wall Street Journal Review: The Perils of Aging.
On 7 December 2020, William White reviewed in the Wall Street Journal a book authored by Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradham. The book documents how positive demographic developments have spurred real growth and restrained inflation over recent decades, and presents convincing evidence that these forces are now going into reverse. This will have profoundly negative effects, for which the governments of advanced countries are ill prepared. This well written book needs to be read by politicians, government officials and concerned citizens. Its message concerns us all.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-great-demographic-reversal-review-the-perils-of-aging-11607381251
“Beyond the obvious” with Dr. Daniel Stelter
William White was interviewed by Daniel Stelter on 13 December for a podcast called “Beyond the obvious”. A wide ranging discussion of recent and prospective central bank policy emphasized the problem of debt accumulation and different ways of dealing with it. The discussion also touched upon Modern Monetary Theory and the possible implications should many governments and central banks try to implement policies of “financial repression” like those pursued by the UK and the US after World War ll. The interview in English proceeds at minute 42 of the podcast, being preceded by Dr Stetler’s summary in German of the discussion.
https://think-beyondtheobvious.com/die-zentralbanken-loeschen-mit-benzin/
Interview on Real Vision television with Jim Grant of “Grant’s Interest Rate Observer”
William White was interviewed on 16 November by Jim Grant, editor of “Grant’s Interest Rate Observer”. The conversation ranged widely over issues related to central banking and future economic prospects. Both the pandemic and the buildup of unintended side effects arising from ultra-easy monetary policy pose challenges going forward. Grant wondered why central bankers seemed to ignore these side effects when setting policy. White suggested that monetary policy in recent years had been captured by circumstances. With both fiscal policy and regulatory policy having restrictive effects on aggregate demand, expansionary monetary policy had been left as the “only game in town”. In response to the pandemic, it was welcome that fiscal expansion was now playing a larger role. White cautioned against too early fiscal tightening, as happened after the Great Financial Contraction, but also warned that the patience of markets towards highly indebted sovereigns would not last forever.
Central banks keep shooting themselves in the foot
On November 16, The Market, a Swiss financial paper, published an interview with William White conducted by the editor, Mark Dittli. White pointed out the existence of a vicious circle that has been repeating for decades. A financial crisis elicits a necessary central bank response that eventually leads to easier monetary conditions. This encourages even more debt accumulation (and leverage) that leads to another and even more serious financial crisis and so on. This process is not sustainable. In the last part of the article, White refers to a set of commonly held beliefs that are simply not true.
“The idea that price stability is sufficient for economic stability? Wrong. That easy money always stimulates demand? Wrong. That the economy is self-adjusting, back to a full employment equilibrium? Wrong. That financial markets are efficient and bad things can’t happen? Wrong. That wealth will trickle down to all levels of society? Wrong. These are big beliefs. And false beliefs are dangerous”.
Surveillance: Monetary Policy with William White (Podcast)
William White appeared on Bloomberg Television on 7 April, and then on a radio podcast with Tom Keene, Jon Ferraro and Paul Sweeney. He expressed concern about the possible ineffectiveness of still more monetary easing and the possibility of unintended and undesired consequences. He supported the greater reliance on fiscal expansion in the current pandemic crisis, noting that the market was likely to be “patient” before responding badly to sharp increases in government debt. White noted however that the market’s “patience” was not likely to be infinite and that thought should be directed to solving this problem going forward.
Debt restructuring in the post- pandemic economy
On 14 May 2020 William White was interviewed on radio by Mark Burgess, the Asian Chairman of OMFIF. Mr White described the state of the global economy, pre covid-19, as “an accident waiting to happen”. The global economy now faces a period of prolonged distress because of a combination of circumstances; these preconditions, aggravations arising from the pandemic itself, then the costs of the government lock-down in response to the health threats, and finally the fiscal and monetary measures taken by governments to ease the economic costs of the lock-down. Perhaps most importantly, the preexisting problem of very high global debt levels has now worsened significantly. The conversation then turned to possible outcomes ranging from lingering depression to very high inflation.
https://www.omfif.org/podcast/debt-restructuring-in-the-post-pandemic-economy/
The last gasps of the easy money experiment
On May 12 William White was interviewed by Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital on Real Vision. White spoke about the limitations of both monetary and fiscal policies going forward, and the need for countries to improve the capacity of the institutional framework to cope with a potentially sharp increase in debt restructurings. In the wide ranging conversation, attention was also drawn to increasing constraints on central bank “independence” and some inherent flaws in the International Monetary (Non) System.
Economic impact of the coronovirus crisis and the G 20 response
On 9 April 2020 William White participated in a webinar panel organized by OMFIF and chaired by their chief economist, Danae Kyriakopoulou. The other panelists were David Marsh and Mark Sobel. In his comments, White commended national governments and central banks for their speedy response to the crisis, but also noted the almost total absence of a coordinated G20 response. He was also concerned that forecasts of a speedy rebound would prove too optimistic, and that there seemed to be no internationally agreed criteria for deciding when social distancing, with its heavy economic and social costs, might be lifted.
http://www.omfif.org/events/covid-19-consequences-economic-impact-and-g20-response/