A Bearish Perspective on Financial Markets

On 15 November Bill White participated in a charity event in Zurich to support Swiss cancer research. The event consisted of an exchange of views about the economic outlook, between Bill and Paul McNamara, an investment director at GAM in London.

Posted by williamw in Presentations

Economic Outlook and The Need for Monetary Reform

Bill White made  a presentation on 24 November at a conference organized by the Monetative group at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management. The conference was directed to analyzing how digitalization might lead to changes in the current monetary system. Bill focusered on shortcomings in the current system, not least recurrent credit driven “booms and busts”, and concluded that these shortcomings provided a prima facie case for thinking about alternative monetary systems.


Posted by williamw in Presentations

What is Macroprudential Policy Not? It is Not a Silver Bullet.

Bill White made the keynote presentation at the end of a 19 November conference on macroprudential policies, organized jointly by the IMF, the Danish National Bank and CBS in Copenhagen. Although many commentators seem to feel that such policies will ensure financial stability in the future, Bill noted that policymakers face many difficulties in conducting them properly. Indeed, they might even contribute to financial instability by encouraging the pursuit of “lower for longer” monetary policy with its many unintended consequences.


Posted by williamw in Presentations

Have Post-Crisis Changes to Financial Regulation Been Sufficient?

Bill presented his comments on a panel at the end of a meeting (August 30-31) in Reykjavik, Iceland, which looked at “The 2008 Global Financial Crisis in Retrospect”. He agreed that much progress has been made in regulating the financial sector, but also drew attention to many remaining shortcomings. The fact that all piecemeal regulatory changes invite evasion, and then still another regulatory response, raises questions as to whether still more radical change to our current financial and monetary system is not required.

Posted by williamw in Presentations

Bad Financial Moon Rising

In this article, published by Project Syndicate, Bill White lays out his reasons for believing that a forthcoming financial crash and subsequent global recession might be even more serious than the one that began in 2008. One important factor is that governments have a much reduced capacity to repond as well as a much reduced willingness to do so in a cooperative way. If rising nationalist tendencies impede collective policy action, which then leads to a worsening economic situation and still more nationalism,  we would be on “an old, familiar, and extremely dangerous path”.

Bad Financial Moon Rising



Posted by williamw in Articles

10 Years After the Failure of Lehman Brothers: What Have We Learned?

The OECD, NAEC and partners for a New Economy, held a meeting in Paris on 13-14 September 2018 directed to this question. Bill White was a panel member commenting on a presentation by Maurice Obstfeld, Chief Economist of the IMF. Given that the panel was at the end of the proceedings, Bill gave his answer to the question, conditioned by what he had heard during the conference. He concluded that we had not learned much, since thepolicies followed post crisis were “more of the same” policies folowed pre-crisis. To achieve a true paradigm shift will require economists embacing the idea that the economy is not a machine, but  a complex, adaptive system like many others in nature and society.

Posted by williamw in Presentations

A Global Dollar Shortage?

The editor of The International Economy magazine asked a number of well known economists “What to make of the global dollar shortage?” The answers were published in the Summer 2018 edition. Bill White’s contribution emphasized systemic exposures linked to the major increase in dollar denominated liabilities issued (largely by corporations) by entities whose revenues were not generated in dollars. Should we pass through another phase of “Risk Off” investing, liquidity support in dollars from the Federal Reserve would likely be required. Whereas swap lines exist for European and some other central banks, no such lines currently exist for some emerging market economies likely to be on the firing line in the future.

International EconomySummer2018


Posted by williamw in Articles, Press

Video Interview with Grant Williams on “Real Vision”

Bill gave an interview to Real Vision, a subscription channel on the internet, which was put out on 18 August, 2018. The interview extends over 90 minutes and covers many of the economic and financial events shaping Bill’s long career. He concludes that the lessons that ought to have been learned from past crises have not been learned. As a result, the global economy not only faces severe risks looking forwards, but global authorities are also increasingly constrained in their capacity to respond. While seeing the full interview requires a subscription, some flavour is given by the following links.



Posted by williamw in Interviews