The calm before a systemic reckoning?

Wlliam White was recently interviewed by Alan Dunne for the podcast “Top Traders Unplugged”. White spoke of his concern that markets and policymakers were underestimating the impact of future negative supply shocks on both inflation (higher) and interest rates. Given high levels of existing debt, both private and public, higher rates could trigger a financial or fiscal crisis. Dunne’s observation, that policy rates  had risen in 2022 without great incident, led on to a discussion of the factors that might yet lead to a crisis. The interview finished with a discussion of the international monetary system and the possibility of Chinese led competition for both SWIFT as an international payment system and for the US dollar as the global reserve currency.

https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/podcast/the-calm-before-a-systemic-reckoning-ft-william-white/

Posted by williamw

Central banks must confront the original sin of monetary easing.

On January 16 the FinancialTimes published a letter submitted by William White. In commenting on two previous articles in the FT, White drew attention to the buildup of debt, both private and public, in many countries. The “original sin” in the 1990s was leaving interest rates so low that debt was encouraged to rise quickly. Subsequently, central banks had little choice but “to ease dra­mat­ic­ally in sub­sequent cycles to fore­stall the burst­ing of the debt bubble that they them­selves had cre­ated”. Many countries now have a debt overhang that needs to be addressed in a serious way.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/0cb2d571-14b2-4b9a-b7db-8e102e5195dc

Posted by williamw

Is Europe Playing with Fire?

The magazine “The International Economy” recently asked a number on international economists to comment on the wisdom of extending the quantity of bonds issued by the EU and supported by provisions of “joint and several” responsibility. WilliamWhite reponded by saying that there were good reasons for supprting such bond issues to date. However, he felt their were also good reasons for believing that this was not a precursor to the issue of EU bonds supported by an expanded capacity of the EU to levy increased taxes across the EU. Given growing nationalist sympathies among the European states, a further near -term move towards fiscal union was likely a bridge too far.

http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_Su25_EUBondSymp.pdf

Posted by williamw in Articles, Press

Global Debt Bubble Could Trigger Financial Crisis

On November 7, 2024, William White was interviewed on the David Lin Report. He again made the case that rising debt levels, particularly of sovereigns in advanced countries, made the prospect of some kind of financial crisis more likely. Whereas White in the past had recommended rather tighter monetary policies to lean against debt accumulation, that accumulation was now so large that such tightening could have dangerous implications. Also, given the likelihood of further stagflationary shocks going forward, White felt that policymakers might be forced to accept higher inflation and also to introduce instruments of financial repression. On international cooperation, White worried that conflict between China and the US would impede cooperation for many years. This would have negative effects on financial stability, environmental change, public health and elsewhere.

 

https://youtu.be/UWT_zFTPYkw

Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press

Public Finances: Are we near a dangerous tipping point?

On September 16, William White made a presentation to a multidisciplinary group at the Balsilie School of International Afairs in Waterloo, ON, Canada. He began by noting that long bonds rates, unusually,  had recently been rising even as short rates were falling. White raised concerns that the bond markets might be factoring in concerns about high government debt levels, prospective higher debt service in the context of stagflationary shocks, and eventually much higher inflation. He then looked at alternative methods of dealing with such a sovereign debt overhang and concluded that “fiancial repression” might well seem the politically most attractive option.

 

BSIAPublicFinanceTippingPointPresentation

https://youtu.be/t0mlx9KKi-o

Posted by williamw in Presentations

Former Chief Economist Explains Monetary End Game

William White was interviewed on 15 September by Paul Buitink of “Reinventing Money”. They covered current concerns including the sustainability of sovereign debt service in a number of advanced countries. White also reflected on the dymanics of “boom bust” cycles and how debt overhang problems might be dealt with. In this latter regard, he concluded there were currently only bad options available. A fuller description of the contents is provided at the beginning of the recording.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDWkIRFbEXU

Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press

How money is created in a modern economy

William White and Douglas Laxton, director of the Better Policy Project, had a discussion on 3 September focussed on how money is created in a modern economy. White stressed his strong support for the school of endogenous money that recognizes that banks create money out of nothing by making loans (a bank asset) and then crediting the borrowers deposit account with an equivelant amount of money (a bank liability). This capacity underlies the recurrent observation of costly boom and bust credit cycles, and the cumulative build up of debt and other economic imbalances that now threaten economic and financial  stability. Laxton then led a discussion of how AI might, or might not, lead to significant increases in productivity that might alleviate such problems.

 

 

Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press

That’s the Monetary End Game

William White recently gave an interview to Gold Republic Global, who summarized the conversation as follows. “Former top central banker at BIS William White breaks down the dangerous consequences of decades of ultra-easy money. From exploding debt and central bank paralysis to inflationary threats, financial repression, and the return of gold—this conversation reveals why the global financial system is reaching a breaking point. White breaks down the growing risks of financial and fiscal dominance, the fragility of the current debt-laden system, and the historic forces driving us from an “age of plenty” to an “age of scarcity.” From malinvestment and financial repression to the rising role of gold and the BRICS monetary pivot, this episode offers a rare insider perspective on where the global economy is heading.”

 

 

 

 

Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press

Reevaluating Monetary policy in an Age of Uncertainty: Embracing Complexity

On March 26, 2025, William White gave the final lecture in the Macroeconomic Policy series sponsored by the Global Risk Institute in Toronto. He began by noting some of the undesirable outcomes associated with flexible inflation targetting in the advanced market economies; rising price levels, very high levels of private and public debt, rising inequality and slower potential growth. These outcomes could end in a serious crisis, an unintended consequence arising from the fact that  the inflation targetting framework rests on false assumptions about how the economy actually works. It is not a simple, static, linear, deterministic system seeking “equilibrium” but a complex, adaptive system (CAS) with potentially dangerous “tipping points” and no equilibrium. Embracing this fact immediatly leads to practical lessons about how to prevent crises,  how to manage the buildup of systemic stress and how to manage crises when they do arise. White then looked at many of the changes already proposed for how the current framework might be improved. He  concluded that the proposals recently made by Claudio Borio (OMFIF) and the BIS (Annual Report) best reflected what an explicit CAS framework would recommend

 

https://globalriskinstitute.org/event/rethinking-monetary-policy-adapting-central-bank-approaches-in-2025-and-beyond/#embedded-video

 

 

Posted by williamw in Presentations

The evolution of monetary policy in an age of uncertainty

William White made a Zoom presentation to a group of central bank econometric model builders on 23 January, 2025. The presentation was organized by the Better Policy Project which is collaborating with the Central Bank of Armenia in devising a new “Prudent Risk Management Approach to Price Stability”. White began by noting that a new approach to monetary policy is  required because the approach followed over recent decades has created ever larger financial bubbles.  The Prudent Risk Management Framework reflects many recent suggestions for improving the monetary policy framework. It recommends reliance on alternative scenarios, incorporating uncertainty and non-linearities, recognizing endogenous money and financial spillovers, and the importance of supply side developments. There are links below to White’s slides and presention.

LaxtonCBEJan2024

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GNqZGICzNps

Posted by williamw in Presentations