08
Aug
2024

Moving from an Age of Plenty to an Age of Scarcity

Wiliam White was interviewed by Ed D’Agostino of Mauldin Economics on  August 2, 2024. The conversation was centered around White’s view that a combination of negative supply shocks, and the need for massive expenditures to confront national security, environmental and other requirements, would in the end have to squeeze consumer expenditures. Higher interest rates would be part of the process for doing this. Transitioning to an Age of Scarcity will create formidable political challenges to the democratic order. The interview itself, and the transcript, are attached below.

 

EdD'Agastino(!)240808-gmu-transcript-william-white

https://youtu.be/d2GG2u7agsE

Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press
19
Jun
2024

Sleepwalking towards a polycrisis? Spillover problems in complex systems

William White holds a PhD from the University of Manchester, and on 26 May partcipated in a fundraiser for other graduates of that university. His keynote presentation described the bad path we are on in the economic, domestic political, geopolitical and environmental spheres, and how things might well get worse. Not least, troubles in one system can destabilise the other systems. After analysing the various forces impeding meaningful policy chage, White gave a broad outline of what needs to be done to move forward, regardless.

 

TorontoManchesterPolycrisisTorontoUofManchester

Posted by williamw in Presentations
30
Mar
2024

Black Gold or Devil’s Excrement?

This article was William White’s response to the question posed by the editors of The International Economy to a panel of economists. It was published in the Fall 2023 edition of the magazine. White notes (page 6) that a country endowed with natural resources is “blessed” but that poor governance can turn that blessing into a resource curse. Similarly, the whole world has been blessed until recently with ample natural resources, especially fossil fuels, but going forward very different circumstances will prevail. Adapting to climate change implies threats to production capacity, of food in particular. Mitigating climate change implies restricting the use of otherwise available energy sources and their costly replacement. Adapting to these changed circumstances poses threats to both economic and political stability.

 

 

InternationalEconomyBlackGoldAutumn2023

 

Posted by williamw in Articles, Press
18
Feb
2024

Why the Monetary Policy Framework in Advanced Countries Needs Fundamental Reform

This paper was published on 3 August 2023 by INET as  Working Paper No 210. It is argued in the paper that monetary policy should be guided much more by financial sector developments (credit and debt) and much less by near term targets for inflation. This argument is first supported by an empirical review of the negative outcomes produced by the inflation targeting framework. In particular, it has led to financial bubbles that have created ever larger bubbles that now seriously threaten future growth prospects. Second, support is provided through questioning the need for and the effectiveness of easy money  (deemed necessary by the inflation targeting framework) and through pointing out its many unintended  consequences. The search for an alternative monetary policy framework would begin with the observation that an economy is a complex, adaptive system like many others in nature and society. From this perspective, arguments for introducing a “narrow money” regime need more attention.

 

http://www.ineteconomics.org/uploads/papers/WP_210-White-Monetary-Policy.pdf

Posted by williamw in Publications
12
Feb
2024

Rethinking Monetary Policy: Adapting Central Bank Approaches in 2024 and Beyond

William White presented a webinar to the Global Risk Institute in Toronto on 7 February 2024 in which he questioned the wisdom of central banks targeting inflation. His presentation was based on  Working Paper No 10, published on 3 August 2023 by INET. He began by documenting some facts: in particular, how the aggressive easing of monetary policy after the bursting of financial “bubbles” in the 1980’s and 1990’s led to a series of still bigger “bubbles” and the uncertain future still facing us today. He then turned to an analysis of how certain “false beliefs” of central banks had led them to conduct policy as they did. White then gave some brief consideration as to to how alternative monetary policy frameworks might have left us facing fewer policy challenges than we currently do.

https://globalriskinstitute.org/event/rethinking-monetary-policy/

 

 

Posted by williamw in Presentations
21
Dec
2023

Why the monetary policy framework in advanced countries needs fundamental reform

Chris Sheridan, host of FS Insiders Podcast, recently interviewed William White about his most recent INET Working Paper. White reviewed the various shortcomings of the current framework; not least, how it has contributed to ever bigger credit bubbles and and ever higher stocks of both public and private debt. In spite of these developments, central banks showed no willingness to reassess either the framework itself or the set of false beliefs on which it rested. White expressed the hope that the conduct of monetary policy could be improved while maintaining the current institutional structure. However, he felt that it was also appropriate to assess seriously alternative and more radical options like the introduction of a “narrow money” regime. The widespread introduction of central bank digital currencies might facilitate such a change

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/4z8kmp8g1je5nrxeto75l/Bill-White-FSN-Interview.mp3?rlkey=cmj8y4g6fwjr6nxy1v6ziyk02&dl=0

Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press
10
Dec
2023

The new age of scarcity: How we can adapt

On 22 November, William White was honored to present the 2023 Sylvia Ostry lecture as a webinar for the CD Howe Institute in Toronto, Canada. He began by noting that he shared Sylvia Ostry’s view that the economy was a complex, adaptive system nested within other such systems. He then proceeded to show that this insight had important lessons for policy makers. White then provided evidence that we were moving from an age of plenty (disinflation) to one of scarcity (inflation), and that pressure for higher real rates would be significant. This pressure would arise from the conjuncture of  lower growth potential with the need for higher investment to meet such challenges as climate change. White finished by suggesting a number of “unpalatable” supply side and fiscal reforms that might lower the danger of “disastrous” outcomes.

TorontoSylviaOstrypdf
Posted by williamw in Publications
26
Nov
2023

What next after Covid-19?

William White’s January 2023 INET Working Paper, “What next for the global economy: Could negative supply shocks disrupt other fragile systems?”, has just been published by Palgrave Macmillan as the Introductory essay in a book. The book’s title is “Fault lines after covid-19: Economic challenges and opportunities”,  edited by R Z Aliber, M Gudmundsson and Gylfi Zoega. A link to the publisher can be found below.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Fault-Lines-After-COVID-19-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C3X2315N/ref=sr_1_2?crid=3SVSDVG9ZX8M6&keywords=aliber+zoega&qid=1697368141&sprefix=aliber+zoega%2Caps%2C105&sr=8-2

Posted by williamw in Publications
27
Sep
2023

Has the Fed Produced a Soft Economic Landing?

William White participated in a panel at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) on 21 September 2023. Other panelists were Don Kohn and Kevin Warsh, former members of the FOMC,  and Desmond Lachman of the AEI. White said that, even if the Fed did achieve a near-term soft landing, medium term prospects would remain challenging since the world was moving from an Age of Plenty to an Age of Shortages. This implied that “higher for longer” would be maintained for some time with attendant risks for financial stability and fiscal sustainability.

https://www.aei.org/events/has-the-fed-produced-a-soft-economic-landing/

 

 

Posted by williamw in Presentations

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