Liquidity Tidal Wave

William White, along with others, answered a question posed by the editors of The International Economy for their Winter 2022 edition: “To what extent is today’s massive global ocean of liquidity breaking all the rules in US financial markets?” White suggests (page 10) that nominal bond rates have stayed low, in part, because the Fed has convinced the bond markets that real rates are “naturally” low, and that higher inflation is only transitory. Should either of these arguments be contested, and White notes there are good grounds to believe they might be, then nominal rates might rise sharply. In this case, ” the effects on an overleveraged global economy would not be pretty”.

Posted by williamw in Articles, Press

The unintended consequences of easy money

Jack Farley of Blockworks posted an interview with William White on 18 November. The interview focused on issues raised in a more technical paper White recently had posted on the INET website (see Publications). Ultra easy monetary policy is increasingly ineffective in stimulating aggregate demand and its negative side effects are becoming increasingly apparent. The discussion also touched upon the distributional implications of the current stance of monetary policy, and the likelihood that “financial repression” might be a solution to the current overhang of debt that has been generated by monetary policy.

Posted by williamw in Interviews

The world needs a restart of the financial order

On the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, William White gave an interview to Daniel Stelter, the host of “Beyond the Obvious”, one of Germany’s most popular financial podcasts. The discussion covered the reasons for the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, the shortcomings of the Non-System that followed it, and proposals for a new system that would not be based on a nationally issued currency, like the US dollar. The discussion also covered currency issues within the euro zone, as well as “narrow money” solutions to both domestic and international problems.

Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press

What about the risk of a bursting asset bubble?

Along with twenty other economists, William White answered the question posed by The International Economy. White advised that the negative effects of ultra-easy monetary policy extend well beyond overpriced assets and that another economic downturn could be triggered by a variety of sources. A new focus on facilitating “orderly” debt restructuring would be unpalatable but still preferable to a “disorderly” and potentially disastrous alternative.

Posted by williamw in Articles, Press

The “debt trap” tightens

On 29 March, William White gave a wide ranging interview to Bastjan Usinech, a journalist at “Finance Manager”, the leading business magazine in Slovenia. The discussion focused on past macroeconomic policy mistakes leading to ever growing debt levels and an ever narrowing path leading to sustainable growth. Falling off that path could plausibly lead to either deflation or high inflation or even both in succession. White also expressed views on what central banks and fiscal authorities should be doing now, as we emerge from the covid pandemic. The pros and cons of more radical alternatives to conventional policies – like “narrow money” and a “debt jubilee” – were also considered.

Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press

Investing during the pandemic

On 25 February 2021, Marc Friedrich posted an interview with William White. Friedrich is a popular author and one of the most widely followed  podcasters in Germany dealing with economic and financial issues. In a wide ranging discussion, White answered questions on the long standing roots of our current economic and financial difficulties and why policymakers chose not to accept earlier criticism that they had embarked upon a dangerous path. The discussion extended to cryptocurrencies and whether more radical monetary and regulatory reform (including reform of the International Monetary System) might be required to achieve sustainable increases in human well being over time?

Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press

Former Central Banker Explains Alarming Debt Trap Facing America

William White was recently interviewed by Danielle Dimartino Booth for Valuetainment Economics. Her regular program,”Down the Middle,” is  internet based and attempts to explain important and current issues in terms that non-specialist viewers can understand. After responding to some questions about his background and reasons for going into central banking, White addressed  a wide range of  topical issues. These include the effectiveness and side effects of ultra-easy monetary policy, the “exit” problem, some changes in financial regulation, and the need for more and better means of debt restructuring at the global level.

Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press

Debt dangers hang over the markets

John Plender, on 9 January in the Financial Times (FT Money), made favourable reference to some of my earlier work. I have suggested that  central bank efforts to restore the functioning of financial markets during crises, while absolutely necessary, might also sow the seeds of still bigger crises in the future.  As a society, we need to think more about the longer term implications of  our efforts to avoid shorter term problems.

Posted by williamw in Press, References

“The Great Demographic Reversal” A Wall Street Journal Review: The Perils of Aging.

On 7 December 2020, William White reviewed in the Wall Street Journal a book authored by Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradham. The book documents how positive demographic developments have spurred real growth and restrained inflation over recent decades, and presents convincing evidence that these forces are now going into reverse.  This will have profoundly negative effects, for which the governments of advanced countries are ill prepared. This well written book needs to be read by politicians, government officials and concerned citizens. Its message concerns us all.


Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press