References

Central banks need escape route from cycle of boom and bust

In his FT article of 1 November, 2024, John Plender made favourable reference to my most recent publication “Why the monetary framework in advanced countries needs fundamental reform”. It has been published as a chapter in the book “The age of debt bubbles”, edited by Max Rangely and published by Springer. Plender concludes that we urgently need debate on excessive monetary easing and the neglect of credit and debt developments. I totally agree, and would add (see my recent AEI presentation) that central banks have essentially ignored supply side developments as well.

https://www.ft.com/content/72b48b7d-ec17-4135-aa40-98b96eec2e64

Posted by williamw in Press, References

Bonds are no longer the safe option

John Plender of the Financial Times wrote an article, published on 12 August 2023, in which he referred at length to my thesis that the world is moving from an “Age of Plenty” to an “Age of Scarcity”. This was the transition referred to by Keynes and which prompted him to write “How to Pay for the War” in 1940. My use of Keynes’ words was intentional and was intended to suggest that we might  be facing similar economic and financial challenges in the near future.

https://www.ft.com/content/91f39150-9abe-4257-8d52-17520d35e534

Posted by williamw in Press, References

Korean debt crisis is a cautionary tale as era of easy money ends

William White was quoted in a Bloomberg article focused on recent problems in Korea’s financial markets that eventually required forceful intervention by the authorities to restore order. White felt that many other countries might face similar problems as monetary policy tightened after many years of unusual ease which had invited leverage and imprudent behaviour.

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgzGrbRWfJNNvlfGZrlNRwSWLwFDx

 

Posted by williamw in Press, References

The Great Reversal into a higher inflation environment

In a Financial Times article written on September 8, John Plender made a favorable reference to the Forward, written by William White, to an essay prepared for the New Zealand Initiative by Graham Wheeler and Bruce Wilkinson. White suggested that central banks have systematically underestimated the importance of supply side shocks when setting monetary policy.

https://www.ft.com/content/c7c3675e-d6c9-42c1-bec3-19cbab162b91

Posted by williamw in Press, References

Edward Chancellor and “The Price of Time”

Edward Chancellor’s recent book “The Price of Time” traces the history of interest rates from their first use in Mesopotamia to modern times. He convincingly documents how low interest rates generally lead to financial instability, low growth and economic insecurity. In the book, and in an interview with Mark Dittli of “The Market” (linked below), he refers very favorably to earlier papers of William White and Claudio Borio of the BIS whom he generously describes as “the heroes in this story” who, in the end, will ” have the last laugh”.

https://themarket.ch/interview/edward-chancellor-central-banks-delayed-the-day-of-reckoning-ld.705

Posted by williamw in Press, References

Debt dangers hang over the markets

John Plender, on 9 January in the Financial Times (FT Money), made favourable reference to some of my earlier work. I have suggested that  central bank efforts to restore the functioning of financial markets during crises, while absolutely necessary, might also sow the seeds of still bigger crises in the future.  As a society, we need to think more about the longer term implications of  our efforts to avoid shorter term problems.

https://www.ft.com/content/91efe8fa-857c-438a-a0f3-96dfb8e7daaa

Posted by williamw in Press, References

Economic Dominoes Are Starting to Drop

In a Forbes magazine article published on 1 May, John Mauldin referred to William White as “the former chief economist at the Bank for International Settlements and my favorite central banker”. In the article, Maudlin refers to the massive and dangerous growth in global debt since 2009 (pre pandemic) and the enabling role played by monetary easing.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2019/05/01/economic-dominoes-are-starting-to-drop/#2f17084d7cec

Posted by williamw

How bad could the coronavirus get for the economy?

William White was quoted in an article in the National Post (Canada) on 20 March. He expressed concern that  a global recession linked to the pandemic could expose underlying fragilities that would aggravate the downturn. He expressed the hope that policymakers had learned lessons from history as to how to mitigate the damage.

 

https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/coronavirus-crisis-new-great-depression?video_autoplay=true

 

Posted by williamw in Press, References

“The seeds of the next crisis”

In the “Big Read” column in the Financial Times of March 4, 2020, John Plender  refers to my concern that post-crisis monetary policy has been “intensely morally hazardous”. Low interest rates and unconventional monetary policies have “set the stage for the next boom and bust cycle, fueled by ever declining credit standards and ever expanding debt accumulation”. COVID-19 could well be the trigger for the eventual “bust” phase to begin. If  so, the magnitude and duration of the downturn might well exceed that expected from the economic consequences of the pandemic viewed in isolation.

 

https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/adce4f38-0826-4fdc-8bdf-cfceea795b5d

Posted by williamw in Press, References