Why central bankers should be humble

This article appeared in the Winter 2020 edition of “The International Economy”. White argues that there is a fundamental intertemporal inconsistency in the repeated use of monetary easing by advanced countries to stimulate aggregate demand. This arises from the fact that monetary stimulus encourages the buildup of debt which eventually strangles further spending.  Moreover, such stimulus in the advanced economies has undesirable side effects. It threatens financial instability, has negative effects on productivity growth and can seriously injure emerging market economies as well. Looking forward, there should be greater reliance on fiscal expansion in response to economic downturns, complemented by stronger fiscal contractions in upturns. Improvements are urgently needed in administrative and judicial procedures for debt restructuring, both private and public.

InternationalEconomyUEMPWinter2020pdf
Posted by williamw in Publications

Economic impact of the coronovirus crisis and the G 20 response

On 9 April 2020 William White participated in a webinar panel organized by OMFIF and chaired by their chief economist, Danae Kyriakopoulou. The other panelists were David Marsh and Mark Sobel. In his comments, White commended national governments and central banks for their speedy response to the crisis, but also noted the almost total absence of a coordinated G20 response. He was also concerned that forecasts of a speedy rebound would prove too optimistic, and that there seemed to be no internationally agreed criteria for deciding when social distancing, with its heavy economic and social costs, might be lifted.

http://www.omfif.org/events/covid-19-consequences-economic-impact-and-g20-response/

Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press

One must react intelligently to the crisis – not only quickly

Christof  Leisinger of the Neue Zurcher Zeitung interviewed William White, and the results were published in German on 1 April 2020 (a translation follows). Mr White welcomed the swift easing of fiscal and monetary policy to support the economy, in the face of the epidemic, but cautioned that measures should be targeted in order to increase effectiveness and reduce moral hazard. He also stressed that, pre-crisis, the global economy was already exposed to a prospective deep downturn because of the buildup of debt and various financial imbalances.  Since the policies being followed at the moment are essentially “more of the same”, thought must be given to more sustainable policies in the future. Reforms to the International Monetary (Non) System should rise further up the policy agenda.

ChristofNZZAspublished
ChristofNZZ1April2020

 

 

Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press

Economic globalisation and the need for international cooperation

This presentation by William White was made in 2012, but has only recently been written up. The presentation began by noting the good and bad aspects of economic globalization, and the challenges it posed for policymakers. It then went on to discuss why international cooperation was required to meet those challenges, and to identify the various factors that were likely to impede that cooperation. Some eight years later, most of the reflections in the paper seem as pertinent as ever. Indeed, in light of the Covid-19 crisis, perhaps even more so.

 

StGallenPDF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted by williamw in Presentations

The recession and the pandemic: cause or trigger?

William White wrote an Intelligence Memo for the C D Howe Institute on 26 March 2020. He notes that the pandemic has certainly caused a recession, hopefully one followed by a “V” shape recovery, but it might also trigger a deeper and more prolonged downturn. In recent decades, global monetary policy has focused too much on short term effects and too little on the longer term consequences – like the continued build up of debt. Macroeconomic policies designed to support the economy in the face of the pandemic should balance off “urgency” with longer run “effectiveness”.

cdhoweIntelligenceMemo
Posted by williamw in Articles, Press

“Take a thought for the morrow” (Matthew 6:34)

This article was published as an OMFIF Commentary on 23 March. It expresses concern that the recession sparked by the pandemic might turn into something deeper and more long lasting.  While recognizing the associated need for policy to lean urgently against the current slowdown, to support a “V” shaped recovery, White notes that some ways of doing so are more effective than others. Policy choices should also “take a thought for the morrow” so as to avoid unintended longer term consequences.

 

OMFIFCOVID-19.docxPDF
Posted by williamw in Articles, Press

How bad could the coronavirus get for the economy?

William White was quoted in an article in the National Post (Canada) on 20 March. He expressed concern that  a global recession linked to the pandemic could expose underlying fragilities that would aggravate the downturn. He expressed the hope that policymakers had learned lessons from history as to how to mitigate the damage.

 

https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/coronavirus-crisis-new-great-depression?video_autoplay=true

 

Posted by williamw in Press, References

The prospective impact of the Covid-19 virus on the global economy

On 19 March, William White was interviewed by BNN, the Canadian business network associated with Bloomberg. He pointed out how this prospective economic downturn differs from that experienced in 2008-9, and laid out some alternative scenarios as to how events might unfold. While generally praising the prompt and significant response of central banks and governments to date, he noted that unfolding events might yet call for more action. The interview can also be found on the website of the C D Howe Institute, where Mr. White is a Senior Fellow.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/economist-who-predicted-the-last-financial-crisis-warns-of-a-debt-bubble-pop-amid-the-covid-19~1924800

Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press

Economic and financial impact of the Covid-19 pandemic

William White was interviewed on March 16 (see 4 minute mark) by “7:30”, Australia’s TV News and  Current Affairs flagship. He suggested that the global economy had been an accident waiting to  happen, due to the many “imbalances” that had been allowed to build up over many years. If the prices of financial assets were to fall significantly, it was very likely that house prices would also be affected. It was unrealistic to think that marginally lower interest rates could suffice to sort out these deep seated problems.

 

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/governments-and-the-reserve-bank-working-on-new/12065060

 

 

Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press

“The seeds of the next crisis”

In the “Big Read” column in the Financial Times of March 4, 2020, John Plender  refers to my concern that post-crisis monetary policy has been “intensely morally hazardous”. Low interest rates and unconventional monetary policies have “set the stage for the next boom and bust cycle, fueled by ever declining credit standards and ever expanding debt accumulation”. COVID-19 could well be the trigger for the eventual “bust” phase to begin. If  so, the magnitude and duration of the downturn might well exceed that expected from the economic consequences of the pandemic viewed in isolation.

 

https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/adce4f38-0826-4fdc-8bdf-cfceea795b5d

Posted by williamw in Press, References