Are fears of a global “currency war” justified?

This article was recently published in German and English by “The Market” , a leading online Swiss financial journal. It argues that, in some respects, we have actually been engaged in a kind of currency war for many years. Countries are not actively trying to depreciate against the dollar, but they are actively trying to prevent their currencies from appreciating. Should the Trump administration now respond, be trying unilaterally to lower the value of the dollar, this could result in a decline in faith in the value of all fiat currencies. In short, another battle in the currency war would be a very bad idea.

https://themarket.ch/meinung/why-we-should-worry-about-a-new-global-currency-war-ld.1107

 

Posted by williamw in Articles, Press

Financial Fault Lines, Central Banks and the Law of Unintended Consequences

On 26 September, William White was interviewed for a podcast  based in New York city called, “Hidden Forces”. Demietri Kofinas raised questions about the current economic and financial outlook and the extent to which central banks and regulators might have inadvertently contributed to new problems while trying to solve old ones. The discussion also touched upon climate change and the implications this might have for the governance of the financial system.

 

http://bit.ly/HF-EP102

Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press

Understanding the New Economy: Systems Not Silos

William White made a presentation on 18 September, at a conference organized by the NAEC group at the OECD in Paris, on “Averting Systemic Collapse”. He argued that we need to embrace the idea (to understand, to accept the narrative) that the global economy is a complex, adaptive system where stocks (not flows) really matter. Public policy will be much improved if we accept this reality and the need for a systems approach to public policy. In contrast, the current belief  that we can understand the system by understanding its individual components ( a silo approach), has led to a potentially catastrophic buildup of stocks of debt and greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. These stocks threatens not only economic stability but even human  survival. At the same time, the “good will” required to find political solutions to these problems, affecting everyone, has seriously declined. At the least, there is an urgent need to change the prevailing analytical framework in economics.

OECDNaecSept2019pdf

 

Posted by williamw in Presentations

Fault Lines in the Pursuit of Financial Stabilty

This paper will in time be published as a chapter in a book. In the interim it will be forthcoming as an INET Working Paper. It argues that, while significant efforts have been made in the post-crisis period to  to make the global financial system more stable, worrying shortcomings remain. Comments would be appreciated before a final version is decided upon.

 

RevisedUliDocumentAug31PDF
Posted by williamw in Publications

Central Banks Need to Rethink their Policy Framework

William White answered a number of questions from Marc Schroers about the current and prospective conduct of global monetary policy. The interview was published on 25 September in Borsen Zeitung. The German version and an English translation are referred to below.

 

SchorerarticleSept2019
SchroersAnswersSept2019PDF

 

Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press

Is a Global Currency War Still Possible?

William White, along with other economists, gave his answer to this question in the Summer 2019 edition of The International Economy. He concludes that “The world has been in a currency war for about a decade” as important central banks have eased domestic monetary policy either to encourage currency depreciation or to prevent appreciation. Whatever the rhetoric about the objective of policy being solely domestic, the end result has been global monetary stimulus of unprecedented magnitude.

InternationalEconomySummer2019

 

 

Posted by williamw in Publications

Where will the money come from? How to finance a Green New Deal?

Mr White made a presentation in Paris on  16 September at a conference organized by a new German think tank, Forum for a New Economy. He began by noting some fundamental problems in providing estimates for the cost of either a Green New Deal (as recently proposed in the US) or for the costs of climate change mitigation. The focus of his remarks was on how fiscal policy, financial regulatory policy and monetary policy might be adapted to respond to climate change and to contribute to climate change mitigation. His greatest concern is that governments will shirk their own responsibility for action (not least, failing to impose much  higher carbon taxes) using the excuse that action by regulatory agencies and central banks will suffice.

 

https://newforum.org/climate/where-will-the-money-come-from-how-to-finance-a-green-new-deal/

Posted by williamw in Presentations

Bloomberg interview with Amanda Lang

On September 10 William White had an interview with Amanda Lang of BNN. Her questions were primarily about the conduct of monetary policy in the global economy, against the backdrop of rising debt ratios and rising trade tensions. Mr White suggested that fiscal policy might have to be relied upon more heavily in the face of any coming downturn. He concluded the interview by noting that monetary policy in small, open economies like Canada was essentially about coping with the monetary policies being followed by much larger countries, above all the United States.

 

https://www.cdhowe.org/video-and-media-appearances/william-white-bnn-three-central-banks-will-set-worlds-economic-conditions

Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press

China’s renmimbi and the global ring of fire

In a 29 August article in the Financial Times, Paul Hodges and Daniel de Blocq van Scheltinga refer to an earlier interview that William White gave to the Daily Telegraph. The general concern he raised was that a growing level of global debt could trigger or exacerbate another global recession. More particularly, White stated his concern about the growing level of dollar denominated debt, issued by non residents of the United  States. This exposed the issuers to dangerous currency mismatch problems should the US dollar continue to strengthen. The recent depreciation of the renmimbi was worrisome in that regard, particularly if it sparked renewed capital flight from China, as was the possibility of another “Risk Off” phase in international capital flows.

FTReftoWilliamWhite

Posted by williamw in Press, References

The 2008 Financial Crisis in Retrospect: Panel Discussion

William White made comments in the concluding panel of a two day meeting (August, 2018) in Reykjavik, Iceland. The papers and proceedings of this conference have just been published by Palgrave Macmillan as

“The 2008 Global Financial Crisis in Retrospect”  Edited by R Z Aliber and G Zoega (2019).

Mr White’s comments focus on whether post-crisis reforms to financial regulation have been sufficiently robust. He welcomes the progress made to date but concludes that threats to financial stability remain uncomfortably high.

Reyjiavikpdf

 

Posted by williamw in Publications