Why policy makers should embrace complexity economics as their analytical framework

Bill White gave a radio interview on 17 May to Chris Sheridan for the California-based Financial Sense Newshour.  The Financial Sense Newshour is a free financial/market broadcast that features analysis of current market events and interviews with financial experts. While directed in large part to the implications for public policy of embracing the concept of the economy as a complex adaptive system,  the discussion ranged more broadly over issues pertinent to both monetary policy and financial regulation. One important issue raised was an evaluation of Modern Monetary Theory, its near term allure but its longer-term dangers.

https://static.financialsense.com/audio/2019-05/fsn2019-05-22-white-0533049305e50.mp3

 

Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press

How the long debt cycle might end

Martin Wolf, in his article of 14 May, 2019 in the Financial Times, made reference to some of my earlier publications that warned of a renewed financial crisis. He notes my concerns about a constantly growing ratio of non-financial sector debt to global GDP and the incoherence between the near term implications of monetary policy (expansionary) and financial regulation (contractionary) for aggregate demand. These problems, along with many other “imbalances” in the global economy arising from policy actions, might trigger a renewed crisis. Should exogenous forces, like a trade war, provide an alternative trigger for a new downturn, these “imbalances” will surely worsen it s magnitude and duration.

http://www.ft.com/content/f09cda30-7598-11e9-bbad-7c18c0ea0201

Posted by williamw in Press, References

New Thinking in Economics

This letter to the editor was published in the April 27th edition of  “The Economist”. It refers briefly to policy insights suggested by embracing the concept of the economy as a complex, adaptive system. A much fuller presentation of those insights, for the conduct of monetary policy in particular, can be found under the category “Presentations” on this website. Posted on 22 April, 2018, the article is entitled “Recognizing the Economy as a Complex, Adaptive System: Implications for Central Banks”.

https://www.economist.com/letters/2019/04/27/letters-to-the-editor

Posted by williamw in Articles, Press

Global debt risk: Are we prepared for the next crisis?

This article was published on 25 April in a new, on-line  Swiss business journal called “The Market”. It suggests that our collective efforts at “crisis prevention” have not been successful and that future economic and financial crises can by no means  ruled out. Moreover, the effectiveness of the instruments we have available to attenuate such problems (“crisis management”) have seriously diminished over time. In such circumstances, many debts will not be serviced or repaid. To avoid a disorderly outcome, like the Debt/Deflation described by Irving Fisher in 1936, many debts will have to be restructured or forgiven. We should be focusing now on improving our legal and administrative procedures to ensure that these debt problems can be resolved  (“crisis resolution”) in as orderly a way as possible.

https://themarket.ch/meinung/william-r-white-are-we-prepared-for-the-next-financial-crisis-ld.213

 

Posted by williamw in Articles, Press

The Limits of Macroprudential Policy

This article was published in the Winter edition of The International Economy, 2019. It suggests that monetary and macroprudential policies should be tightened jointly to resist credit bubbles and the build up of debt to dangerous levels. While central banks have shown no appetite for this, they are increasingly inclined to use macroprudential policies to allow “lower for longer” monetary policies. This implies that monetary and macroprudential policies are now working at cross purposes, which risks raising the costs of future financial instability.

InternationlEconomyMacroPru
Posted by williamw in Publications

Central banks are biased towards loose policy

This interview with Bill White was published in the Swiss paper, Finanz und Wirtschaft on 6 April, 2019. In it, Bill reflects on how the “debt trap” will impede monetary normalization, and how central banks got into this situation. He also discusses how other policies might be used to raise the possibility of getting out of this trap.

Central banks are biased towards loose policy https://www.fuw.ch/article/central-banks-are-biased-towards-loose-policy/

Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press

Global Financial Markets Risks: Prevention, Management and Resolution

On the 12 February, Bill White led off a panel discussion at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. He contended that past policy measures directed to preventing economic crises have not been adequate. Indeed, there are grounds for belief that some of the policies followed in recent years have raised both the probability and the expected costs of a future crisis. When it comes, we will also find that our capacity both to manage and resolve crises has become increasingly inadequate.

 

http://www.aei.org/events/global-financial-market-risks-entering-unchartered-territory/

 

Posted by williamw in Presentations

Ways Out of the Global Debt Trap

This article was published in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on 18 December 2018. It was based on a presentation made on 16 November to the Progress Foundation in Zurich.

 

Gastbeitrag Bill White FAZ Dez 2018
Posted by williamw in Articles

Reforming the Fed

Along with others, Mr White was invited to provide an answer to the question, posed by the magazine The International Economy, of how the Fed’s mandate might be changed. He suggested that efforts to raise inflationary expectations by changing the mandate were doomed to failure. Rather, the Fed should pay less attention to decimal point deviations from inflation targets and focus more intently on avoiding credit driven “busts” in financial markets. The article was published in the Spring 2019 edition.

Reforming the Fed

InternationlEconomyFedReformPublication
Posted by williamw in Articles, Press

The Decade of Catching Up: Within the EU

Bill White made a presentation at the annual Lamfalussy Conference held at the Central Bank of Hungary, this year on February 4 in Budapest. His topic was the process of economic convergence between the Central, Eastern and South Eastern Economies (CESEE) in Europe and those richer economies further to the West. After looking at the recent history, Mr White suggested that future prospects for convergence depended in large part on the CESEE economies being resilient in resisting downturns. Historical studies indicated clearly that political division and the erosion of the rule of law reduced the trust and cooperation required for a resilient economy.

BudapestLamfalussyPaper
Posted by williamw in Publications