Bill White made the keynote presentation at the end of a 19 November conference on macroprudential policies, organized jointly by the IMF, the Danish National Bank and CBS in Copenhagen. Although many commentators seem to feel that such policies will ensure financial stability in the future, Bill noted that policymakers face many difficulties in conducting them properly. Indeed, they might even contribute to financial instability by encouraging the pursuit of “lower for longer” monetary policy with its many unintended consequences.
Ways Out of the Global Debt Trap: Restructuring and Forgiveness
On 16 November, Bill made a presentation at a.meeting organized by the Swiss Progress Foundation in Zurich. Hans Werner Sinn also made a presentation.
Have Post-Crisis Changes to Financial Regulation Been Sufficient?
Bill presented his comments on a panel at the end of a meeting (August 30-31) in Reykjavik, Iceland, which looked at “The 2008 Global Financial Crisis in Retrospect”. He agreed that much progress has been made in regulating the financial sector, but also drew attention to many remaining shortcomings. The fact that all piecemeal regulatory changes invite evasion, and then still another regulatory response, raises questions as to whether still more radical change to our current financial and monetary system is not required.
IcelandFinalPanelCommentsBad Financial Moon Rising
In this article, published by Project Syndicate, Bill White lays out his reasons for believing that a forthcoming financial crash and subsequent global recession might be even more serious than the one that began in 2008. One important factor is that governments have a much reduced capacity to repond as well as a much reduced willingness to do so in a cooperative way. If rising nationalist tendencies impede collective policy action, which then leads to a worsening economic situation and still more nationalism, we would be on “an old, familiar, and extremely dangerous path”.
Bad Financial Moon Rising
10 Years After the Failure of Lehman Brothers: What Have We Learned?
The OECD, NAEC and partners for a New Economy, held a meeting in Paris on 13-14 September 2018 directed to this question. Bill White was a panel member commenting on a presentation by Maurice Obstfeld, Chief Economist of the IMF. Given that the panel was at the end of the proceedings, Bill gave his answer to the question, conditioned by what he had heard during the conference. He concluded that we had not learned much, since thepolicies followed post crisis were “more of the same” policies folowed pre-crisis. To achieve a true paradigm shift will require economists embacing the idea that the economy is not a machine, but a complex, adaptive system like many others in nature and society.
OECDPanelSept2018A Global Dollar Shortage?
The editor of The International Economy magazine asked a number of well known economists “What to make of the global dollar shortage?” The answers were published in the Summer 2018 edition. Bill White’s contribution emphasized systemic exposures linked to the major increase in dollar denominated liabilities issued (largely by corporations) by entities whose revenues were not generated in dollars. Should we pass through another phase of “Risk Off” investing, liquidity support in dollars from the Federal Reserve would likely be required. Whereas swap lines exist for European and some other central banks, no such lines currently exist for some emerging market economies likely to be on the firing line in the future.
International EconomySummer2018
A Retrospective: Ten Years after Lehman Brothers
Bill White gave an interview to Herman Hesse of Der Spiegel who referred to him in an article published (in German) on 8 September 2018.
HesseArticle2018Video Interview with Grant Williams on “Real Vision”
Bill gave an interview to Real Vision, a subscription channel on the internet, which was put out on 18 August, 2018. The interview extends over 90 minutes and covers many of the economic and financial events shaping Bill’s long career. He concludes that the lessons that ought to have been learned from past crises have not been learned. As a result, the global economy not only faces severe risks looking forwards, but global authorities are also increasingly constrained in their capacity to respond. While seeing the full interview requires a subscription, some flavour is given by the following links.
Interview with Mark Schorer in Börsen-Zeitung
In this interview, published in Börsen-Zeitung on 8 June 2018, Bill answers questions related to the Swiss referendum (the “Vollgeld” initiative) on whether a “narrow money”regime should be introduced in Switzerland. He agrees that the current fiat money system in place almost everywhere has serious deficiencies. Thinking carefully about how it might be improved or even replaced is a worthwhile endeavour. That said, replacing the current Swiss system with one so radically different, and at such short notice, coud result in unintended and undesired consequences. The interview in German, and the English translation, can be found below.
SchroersInterview8june2018Review of a Book of Essays by Alexander Lamfalussy
Alexander Lamfalussy was the General Manager of the BIS and later the head of the European Monetary Institute, the precursor of the European Central Bank. Lamfalussy’s analysis of problems like financial instability and debt overhang, still with us today, provide important insights into possible solutions. A book that can be read cover to cover, or dipped into as the need arises.
http://www.jeeh.it/articolo?urn=urn:abi:abi:RIV.JOU:2018;1.172
