14
Mar
2021

Investing during the pandemic

On 25 February 2021, Marc Friedrich posted an interview with William White. Friedrich is a popular author and one of the most widely followed  podcasters in Germany dealing with economic and financial issues. In a wide ranging discussion, White answered questions on the long standing roots of our current economic and financial difficulties and why policymakers chose not to accept earlier criticism that they had embarked upon a dangerous path. The discussion extended to cryptocurrencies and whether more radical monetary and regulatory reform (including reform of the International Monetary System) might be required to achieve sustainable increases in human well being over time?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CiyyZJSIWyo

Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press
02
Mar
2021

International financial regulation: Why it still falls short

Previously a Working paper posted by INET, this article has now been published as a chapter in a book called “The next money crash and a reconstruction blueprint”. Edited by Uli Kortsch, the book makes the case that economic systems in which private banks (and shadow banks) effectively create money are inherently prone to crises of increasing seriousness. It effectively argues for a modern version of the Chicago Plan that replaces bank-created-money with sovereign-created-money. White’s paper helps document many of the problems generated by the current system and why monetary and regulatory policies have not been able to overcome them. He also lists a number of reforms, in order of their ease of implementation, that could in principle reduce the need for more radical reform. White finishes by noting that monetary reform at the national level is not enough. We also need to reform the International Monetary (Non) System.

UliINETpdf
Posted by williamw in Publications
28
Feb
2021

Strategic challenges arising from ultra-low interest rates and quantitative easing

On 18 February, William White made  a webinar presentation to the Global Risk Institute, a Toronto based think tank, with Jason Stewart as the Moderator. The presentation was based on a forthcoming Working Paper to be published by INET. White questions the wisdom of having relied so much  on monetary policy to provide economic stimulus, particularly over successive cycles. By encouraging the accumulation of debt, often for unproductive purposes, monetary stimulus becomes increasingly ineffective over time. Moreover, it threatens financial stability in a variety of ways, leads to real resource misallocations that lower potential growth, and finally produces a “debt trap” that cannot be escaped without significant economic costs.

https://globalriskinstitute.org/past-events/strategic-challenges-and-structural-risks-with-ultra-low-interest-rates-and-quantitative-easing/

Posted by williamw in Presentations
11
Feb
2021

Former Central Banker Explains Alarming Debt Trap Facing America

William White was recently interviewed by Danielle Dimartino Booth for Valuetainment Economics. Her regular program,”Down the Middle,” is  internet based and attempts to explain important and current issues in terms that non-specialist viewers can understand. After responding to some questions about his background and reasons for going into central banking, White addressed  a wide range of  topical issues. These include the effectiveness and side effects of ultra-easy monetary policy, the “exit” problem, some changes in financial regulation, and the need for more and better means of debt restructuring at the global level.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kfm4F6b6hZM

Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press
22
Jan
2021

The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse

In this article, published in the Winter edition of “The International Economy” magazine, William White identifies four interrelated and systemic problems, akin to the biblical Four Horsemen, that need urgent and simultaneous attention.  Our economic, political, environmental and health systems are all operating under severe stress. Moreover, their interrelatedness implies that failure anywhere could well lead to failure elsewhere, and potentially everywhere. Where we are is not a good place to be. Recognizing the analytical uncertainties involved, and also the associated difficulties of turning plans into concrete actions, White then makes some tentative suggestions as to how policy might respond to these threats.

InternationalEconomyFourHorsemenpdf
Posted by williamw in Publications
13
Jan
2021

Debt dangers hang over the markets

John Plender, on 9 January in the Financial Times (FT Money), made favourable reference to some of my earlier work. I have suggested that  central bank efforts to restore the functioning of financial markets during crises, while absolutely necessary, might also sow the seeds of still bigger crises in the future.  As a society, we need to think more about the longer term implications of  our efforts to avoid shorter term problems.

https://www.ft.com/content/91efe8fa-857c-438a-a0f3-96dfb8e7daaa

Posted by williamw in Press, References
13
Jan
2021

“The Great Demographic Reversal” A Wall Street Journal Review: The Perils of Aging.

On 7 December 2020, William White reviewed in the Wall Street Journal a book authored by Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradham. The book documents how positive demographic developments have spurred real growth and restrained inflation over recent decades, and presents convincing evidence that these forces are now going into reverse.  This will have profoundly negative effects, for which the governments of advanced countries are ill prepared. This well written book needs to be read by politicians, government officials and concerned citizens. Its message concerns us all.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-great-demographic-reversal-review-the-perils-of-aging-11607381251

 

Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press
14
Dec
2020

“Beyond the obvious” with Dr. Daniel Stelter

William White was interviewed by Daniel Stelter on 13 December for a podcast called “Beyond the obvious”. A wide ranging discussion of recent and prospective central bank policy emphasized the problem of debt accumulation and different ways of dealing with it. The discussion also touched upon Modern Monetary Theory and the possible implications should many governments and central banks try to implement policies of “financial repression” like those pursued by the UK and the US  after World War ll.  The interview in English proceeds at minute 42 of the podcast, being preceded by Dr Stetler’s summary in German of the discussion.

https://think-beyondtheobvious.com/die-zentralbanken-loeschen-mit-benzin/

 

Posted by williamw in Interviews, Press
12
Dec
2020

The centrality of central banks during the covid era

William White made a presentation to The Institute for International and European Affairs in Dublin on 11 December.  the topic was the role played by central banks during the covid-19 pandemic and the implications for central banks going forward. White suggested that central banks had successfully restored order in financial markets in the spring, which was necessary, but that their actions were essentially “more of the same” policies that they had been pursuing for many years. The cumulative effect of those policies had been a massive increase in global debt ratios and the emergence of other imbalances that now had to be confronted and resolved by governments rather than central banks. White’s talking notes and a video recording can be found below.

DubliIIEApdf

https://youtu.be/BLX-hcAwqyQ

Posted by williamw in Presentations
07
Dec
2020

“The Great Demographic Reversal”: a book review

Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan recently published a book called “The Great Demographic Reversal: Aging societies, waning inequality and an inflation revival”. William White’s review of this book was published in “The Market” on 1 December 2020. White strongly recommends reading this book, both for the clarity and force of the arguments it contains but also its bravery. Contrary to informed opinion that deflation looms, the book suggests that demographic changes at the global level might be leading to both slower real growth and more inflation. Goodhart and Pradhan then spell out some of the unpleasant side effects of such developments. White generally concurs, but presents some arguments for expecting even more inflation thanGodhart and Pradhan seem to suggest.

https://themarket.ch/meinung/will-the-next-decade-see-the-return-of-inflation-ld.3096

Posted by williamw

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